Reasonable Doubt

...So, to sum up again...
The Observers at Astro Sanctum track the movement of the stars and record it.
Using that data, they calculate the probability of Voidborn falls, monster threats, and all sorts of disasters that might occur.
And based on those projections, the Orbital Search Team gets deployed to the projected disaster zones.
That's incredible. Like something straight out of a movie.
Really? Is it that cliche?
We were taking a short break during training, chatting about Roberta's work.
Ms. Roberta!
Naru? Why'd you come all the way out here?
If it's the assignment roster, I told you it's on my desk. You can draft it based on that.
No, it's not about that...!
What...? Lugh's injured?
The area she was deployed to was classified low-risk!
The expected threat was just a minor monster incursion, under ten percent probability.
It was supposed to be a routine verification... Did something go wrong?
That's what I thought too, but—!
No, better to hear it from her directly. Let's go to the hospital.
Sorry, Captain. Looks like one of my team members got hurt.
I'm coming with you.
...Okay. Thanks.

Ah, Ms. Roberta. You didn't have to come all this way...
You think I'd sit still while one of my team is hurt?
Are you all right? It's not too bad, is it?
It'll be okay. Just a broken wrist and shin, that's all.
...*Sigh* No one calls broken bones "okay".
You know better than anyone. I'll be back on my feet in no time.
What happened out there?
...It's my fault. I thought I'd just be a site check.
Then a swarm of mid-class monsters appeared out of nowhere.
I let my guard down. The fault is mine.
...No, Lugh. This isn't your fault.
Estimated probabilities can be wrong... but not usually at this magnitude.
...You did well. Get some rest and focus on recovering.
*Sigh...* So I wasn't overthinking it after all.
What do you mean?
Oh! Um...
Well, I guess it's fine I tell you, Captain.
Something's been off with the data coming from the Observatory.
The site Lugh handled today was classified as low-risk.
At worst, we expected small fry.
But what actually showed up was a massive swarm of mid-class monsters...
Is it that abnormal?
Reports from the Orbital Observatory are ultimately just predictions. Nothing they send us is guaranteed.
The Orbital Search Team handles what the numbers miss.
Anything can happen at an actual disaster site. But even so...
Something feels wrong. This makes several similar cases in a row now.
Just last week, one of my team members barely made it out.
And now Lugh's seriously injured.
Such discrepancies were rare just six months ago.
What do you think is causing it?
There could be a number of reasons, but...
The Orbital Search Team operates entirely off data from the Orbital Observatory.
And lately, those reports... just haven't been trustworthy.
Ever since the new Observation Director took over, it feels like these cases have... increased.
Ah, Ms. Roberta of the Orbital Search Team.
...Well, if it isn't Observation Director Eleanor.
Ahem. I heard one of your members was injured, so I came to offer my condolences.
I extend my regrets on behalf of the Observatory.
...Appreciated.
Well... in this line of work, things happen, you know? One way or another...
...Excuse me?
Observation is... far more complex than you might think.
Even the tiniest variable can skew results significantly.
I trust you understand that much.
...
My, that's quite the glare.
I just find it hard to understand when these "variables" are getting frequent.
Not just this time. The previous incident too, it's—
Now, now. Careful with how you put it, Ms. Roberta.
Surely you're well aware that observation results are never flawless.
Adjusting for that uncertainty is precisely the Orbital Search Team's role.
It almost sounds like you're blaming the Observatory.
The discrepancy between reports and reality has grown. That's a fact.
Especially since you became Observation Director.
...My, what an unfounded accusation.
Statistically speaking, the average error rate remains stable.
Numbers do not lie, you know.
But...! People out there in the field can tell the difference—
*Sigh...* Those are feelings, not statistics.
...You're still as impulsive as you were as a rookie, I see.
...Excuse me?
I believe your team used to call you the "screwball" of the team back then.
Your commander's promotion was delayed taking responsibility for your incidents.
Ngh...!
These wild accusations of yours are deeply insulting to me as Observation Director.
If you want to file a complaint, do so properly. With evidence.
Typical of a department that solves everything with brute force. So uncultured.
Keep relying on your fists like that and—
My fist was probably clenched just as tightly as Roberta's.
You're the Journey Captain, I presume?
...Well. I meant no offense, at least to you.
In any case... Ms. Roberta. Please do be more careful.
...
*Sigh...* Unbelievable.
I couldn't even say anything back. How pathetic...
Are you okay?
...*Sigh...*
...*Sigh* I lost my cool. I let her provoke me.
I knew losing my temper would only backfire on me...!
But that smug attitude of hers just made me so angry...! Ugh!!
Not exactly subtle, is she?
Krgh...! What really gets me is...!
She holds the higher authority, for one...!
And second, I can't even prove her wrong! That's the really burns!
Statistically, every checks out.
Something's being skewed. It has to be. None of this adds up.
You should take a break for now.
...Yeah. You're right.
I'll clear my head, then go over everything again.
After grabbing something cold to settle our nerves, we ended training early.